Effect of Mean Annual Changeability of Air Temperature, Surface Ozone Concentration and Galactic Cosmic Rays Intensity on the Mortality of Tbilisi City Population


Avtandil G. Amiranashvili ა.ამირანაშვილი; Teimuraz S. Bakradze თ.ბაქრაძე; Nino T. Berianidze ნ. ბერიანიძე; Nino D. Japaridze ნ. ჯაფარიძე; Ketevan R. Khazaradze ქ. ხაზარაძე


The results of a study of the effect of the annual changeability of air temperature, surface ozone concentration and neutron component of galactic cosmic rays intensity on the mortality of the population of Tbilisi city in 1984-2010 are presented. The statistical characteristics of the investigated time-series are studied. In particular, it was found that within the variation range the contribution of the studied parameters to mortality variability is as follows: a random component of air temperature - 8.5%, real values of surface ozone concentration and cosmic ray intensity - 20.9% and 16.5%, respectively.


Download data is not yet available.


[1] Bunker A., Wildenhain J., Vandenbergh A., Henschke N., Rocklöv J., Hajat Sh., Sauerborn R. Effects of Air Temperature on Climate-Sensitive Mortality and Morbidity Outcomes in the Elderly; a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Epidemiological Evidence. EbioMedicine, v. 6, 2016, pp. 258–268.
[2] Turner, L.R., Barnett, A.G., Connell, D., Tong, S. Ambient temperature and cardio respiratory morbidity: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Epidemiology, v. 23, 2012, pp. 594–606.
[3] Zhou X., Zhao A., Meng X., Chena R., Kuang X., Duan X., Kan H. Acute effects of diurnal temperature range on mortality in 8Chinese cities. Science of the Total Environment, v. 493, 2014, pp. 92–97.
[4] Wang X.Y., Barnett A.G., Hu W., Tong S. Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, 1996–2005. Int. J. Biometeorol., v. 53, 2009, pp. 535–541. doi:10.1007/s00484-009-0241-4.
[5] Kyobutungi C., Grau A., Stieglbauer G., Becher H. Absolute temperature, temperature changes and stroke risk: a case-crossover study. Eur. J. Epidemiol., v. 20, 2005, pp. 693–698. doi:10.1007/s10654-005-0703 [6] Zaninović K., Matzarakis A. Impact of heat waves on mortality in Croatia. Int. J. Biometeorol., v. 58, iss. 6, 2014, pp. 1135–1145.
[7] Gomez-Acebo I., Llorca J., Dierssen T. Cold-related mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cancer: a case-crossover study. Public Health, v. 127, 2013, pp. 252–258.
[8] Amiranashvili A., Chikhladze V., Kartvelishvili L., Khazaradze K. Expected Change of the Extremal Air Temperature and its Influence on the Mortality (Based on the Example to Tbilisi City). International Cooperation Network for East European and Central Asian Countries: EECA Conference, Yerevan, Armenia, October 7-8, 2010, http://be.sci.am/.
[9] Davis R.E., Knappenberger P.C., Novicoff W.M., Michaels P.J. Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the eastern United States. Clim. Res., v. 22, 2002, pp. 175–184.
[10] Huynen M.M.T.E., Martens P., Schram D., Weijenberg M.P., Kunst A.E. The Impact of Heat Waves and Cold Spells on Mortality Rates in the Dutch Population. Environmental Health Perspectives, v.109, N 5, 2001, pp. 463 – 470.
[11] Davis R.E., Gregor G.R., Enfield K.B. Humidity: A review and primer on atmospheric moisture and human health. Environmental Research, v. 144, Part A, January 2016, pp. 106-116.
[12] Amiranashvili A.G., Gogua R.A., Matiashvili T.G., Kirkitadze D.D., Nodia A.G., Khazaradze K.R., Kharchilava J.F., Khurodze T.V., Chikhladze V.A. The Estimation of the Risk of Some Astro-Meteo-Geophysical Factors for the Health of the Population of the City of Tbilisi. Int. Conference “Near-Earth Astronomy 2007” Abstract, Terskol, Russia, 3-7 September 2007, p. 86.
[13] Shaposhnikov D., Revich B., Gurfinkel Yu., Naumova E. The influence of meteorological and geomagnetic factors on acute myocardial infarction and brain stroke in Moscow, Russia. Int. J. of Biometeorology, v. 58, iss. 5, 2014, pp. 799–808.
[14] Azcárate T., Mendoza B., Levi J.R. Influence of geomagnetic activity and atmospheric pressure on human arterial pressure during the solar cycle 24. Advances in Space Research, v. 58, iss. 10, 2016, pp. 2116-2125.
[15] Palmer S., Rycroft M., Cermack M. Solar and geomagnetic activity, extremely low frequency magnetic and electric fields and human health at the Earth’s surface. Surv. Geophys., v. 27, 2006, pp. 557–595. doi:10.1007/s10712-006-9010-7
[16] Caswell J.M., Carniello T.N., Murugan N.J. Annual incidence of mortality related to hypertensive disease in Canada and associations with heliophysical parameters. Int. J. Biometeorol., v. 60, 2015, pp. 9–20. doi:10.1007/s00484-015-1000-3.
[17] Alexander L.T., Atawi N.S.A.l., Mostafa H.M.A. Space Weather Effects on Humans in Tabuk City, KSA. Int. J. of Applied Science and Technology, v. 6, N 1, February 2016, pp. 47-57.
[18] Zenchenko T.A., Dimitrova S., Stoilova I., Breus T.K. Individual responses of arterial pressure to geomagnetic activity in practically healthy subjects. Klin. Med., v. 87(4), 2009, pp.18–24. [19] Amiranashvili A., Bliadze T., Chikhladze V. Photochemical smog in Tbilisi. Monograph, Trans. of Mikheil Nodia institute of Geophysics, ISSN 1512-1135, v. 63, Tb., 2012, 160 p., (in Georgian).
[20] Hori A., Hashizume M., Tsuda Y., Tsukahara T., Nomiyama T. Effects of weather variability and air pollutants on emergency admissions for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Int. J. Environ Health Res., v. 22(5),2012, pp.416–430. doi:10.1080/09603123.2011.650155
[21] Amiranashvili A., Matiashvili T., Nodia A., Nodia Kh., Kharchilava J., Khunjua A., Khurodze T., Chikhladze V. Air Electrical Conductivity Changeability as the Factor of Atmosphere Purity. Trans. of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, ISSN 1512-1135, v. 60, Tb., 2008, pp. 186 – 194, (in Russian).
[22] Amiranashvili A., Chikhladze V., Bliadze T. Contemporary State of a Question About the Spatial-Temporary Distribution of Photochemical Smog and Ozone. Trans. of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, v. LXI, ISSN 1512-1135, Tb., 2009, pp. 179-186, (in Russian).
[23] Amiranashvili A., Bliadze T., Melikadze G., Tarkhan-Mouravi I., Chikhladze V. Content of Light Aeroions as Factor of the Air Purity of Some Health Resorts of Georgia. Modern Problems of Using of Health Resort Resources, Collection of Scientific Works of International Conference, Sairme, Georgia, June 10-13, 2010, ISBN 978-9941-0-2529-7, Tbilisi, 2010, pp. 145-151, (in Russian).
[24] Amiranashvili A., Chikhladze V., Bliadze T. Contemporary State of a Question About the Action of Photochemical Smog and Surface Ozone on Human Health. Trans. of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, v. LXII, ISSN 1512-1135,Tbilisi, 2010, pp. 177-188,(in Russian).
[25] Amiranashvili A., Khurodze T., Shavishvili P., Beriashvili R. Iremashvili I. Dinamics of the Mortality of the Population of Tbilisi City and its Connection with the Surface Ozone Concentration. Journ. of Georgian Geophysical Soc., Iss. (B), Physics of Atmosphere, Ocean and Space Plasma, ISSN 1512-1127, v.16b, Tbilisi, 2013, pp. 31-38.
[26] Amiranashvili A.G. Increasing Public Awareness of Different Types of Geophysical Catastrophes, Possibilities of Their Initiation as a Result of Terrorist Activity, Methods of Protection and Fight With Their Negative Consequences. Engaging the Public to Fight Consequences of Terrorism and Disasters. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series E: Human and Societal Dynamics, v. 120. IOS Press, Amsterdam•Berlin•Tokyo•Washington, DC, ISSN 1874-6276, 2015, pp.155-164. http://www.nato.int/science; http://www. springer.com; http://www.iospress.nl.
[27] Amiranashvili A., Amiranashvili V., Kartvelishvili L., Nodia Kh., Khurodze T. Influence of Air Effective Temperature and Geomagnetic Storms on the Population of Tbilisi City. Trans. of the Institute of Hydrometeorology, v. No 115, ISSN 1512-0902, Tbilisi, 2008, pp. 434 – 437, (in Russian).
[28] Amiranashvili A., Mirianashvili K., Fedorova N., Levit V., Fabiana Medeiros Carnaúba, Aliton Oliveira da Silva. Comparative analysis of air equivalent - effective temperature in some cities of Georgia and Brazil, Proc. of Int. Conf. “Environment and Global Warming”, Dedicated to the 100th Birthday Anniversary of Academician F. Davitaya, Collected Papers New Series, N 3(82), ISSN 2333-3347, Tbilisi, 2011, pp. 105-110.
[29] Amiranashvili A., Danelia R., Mirianashvli K., Nodia A., Khazaradze K.,Khurodze T., Chikhladze V. On the Applicability of the Scale of Air Equivalent-Effective Temperature in the Conditions of Tbilisi City.Trans. of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, v. LXII, ISSN 1512-1135,Tbilisi, 2010, pp. 216-220, (in Russian).
[30] Farajzadeh H., Saligheh M., Alijani B., Matzarakis A. Comparison of selected thermal indices in the northwest of Iran. Natural Environment Change, v. 1, N 1, 2015, pp. 1- 20.
[31] Amiranashvili A.G., Chikhladze V.A. Saakashvili N.M., Tabidze M.Sh., Tarkhan-Mouravi I.D. Bioclimatic Characteristics of Recreational Zones – Important Component of the Passport of the Health Resort – Tourist Potential of Georgia. Trans. of the Institute of Hydrometeorology at the Georgian Technical University, v. 117, ISSN 1512-0902, Tbilisi, 2011, pp. 89-92.
[32] Amiranashvili A.G., Bliadze T.G., Chikhladze V.A., Saakashvili N.M., Tarkhan-Mouravi I.D., Sikharulidze Sh.A., Lachashvili N.I. National Botanical Garden of Georgia – Recreational – Sanitation Oasis of Tbilisi City. Trans. of the Institute of Hydrometeorology at the Georgian Technical University, v. 117, ISSN 1512-0902, Tbilisi, 2011, pp. 94-96.
[33] Matzarakis A., Rudel E., Zygmuntowski M., Koch E. Bioclimatic maps for tourism purposes. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, v. 35, 2010, pp. 57–62.
[34] Davis R.E., Knight D., Hondula D., Knappenberger P.C. A comparison of biometeorological comfort indices and human mortality during heat waves in the United States. Paper presented at Human biometeorology: The heat 17th conference on biometeorology and aerobiology, San Diego, CA, 2006, https://ams.confex.com/ams/BLTAgFBioA/techprogram/paper_110867.htm
[35] Ketterer Ch., Matzarakis A. Human-biometeorological assessment of the urban heat island in a city with complex topography – The case of Stuttgart, Germany. Urban Climate, v. 10, Part 3, December 2014, pp. 573-584.
[36] Urban A., Kyselý J. Comparison of UTCI with Other Thermal Indices in the Assessment of Heat and Cold Effects on Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, vol. 11, 2014, pp. 952-967.
[37] Amiranashvili A.G., Cornélissen G., Amiranashvili V., Gheonjian L., Chikhladze V.A., Gogua R.A., Matiashvili T.G., Paatashvili T., Kopytenko Yu.A., Siegelova J., Dusek J., Halberg F. Circannual and circadecennian stages in mortality from cardiovascular causes in Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia (1980-1992). Scriptamedica (Brno), 75, 2002, pp. 255-260.
[38] Marti-Soler H., Gonseth S., Gubelmann C., Stringhini S., Bovet P., Chen P-Ch., Wojtyniak B., Paccaud F., Tsai D-H., Zdrojewski T., Marques-Vidal P. Seasonal variation of overall and cardiovascular mortality: A study in 19 countries from different geographic locations. PLOS ONE, v.9 (11), 2014, http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0113500
[39] Amiranashvili A., Chargazia Kh., Chikhladze V., Japaridze N., Khazaradze K. The monthly variations in mortality from the cardiovascular diseases in Tbilisi. Georgian Medical News, N 5 (242), 2015, pp. 53-59.
[40] Kharchilava J., Chikhladze V., Chochishvili K., Chkhaidze G. Changeability of Surface Ozone Concentration in Tbilisi in 1984-2010. Proc. Int. Sc. Conference on “Environment and Global Warming”, Tbilisi, Georgia, 15-17 September 2011, Vakhushti Bagrationi Institute of Geography, Collected Papers, New Series, N 3(82), ISSN 2233-3347, Tbilisi, 2011, pp. 111–116.
[41] Kobisheva N., Narovlianski G. Climatological processing of the meteorological information, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978, 294 p., (in Russian).
[42] Kendall M.G. Time-series, Moscow, 1981, 200 p., (in Russian).
[43] Amiranashvili A.G, Bakradze T.S, Ghlonti N.Ya, Khurodze T.V., Tuskia I.I. On the Connection of Annual Variations of the Intensity of Galactic Cosmic Rays with the Changeability of Cloudiness and Air Temperature in Tbilisi. Journ. of Georgian Geophysical Soc., Iss. (B), Physics of Atmosphere, Ocean and Space Plasma, ISSN 1512-1127, v.19b, Tbilisi, 2016, pp. 128-134.
[44] Nurtaev B.S., Nurtaev L. Long Term Trends in Climate Variability of Caucasus Region. Journ. of Georgian Geophysical Soc., Iss. (B), Physics of Atmosphere, Ocean and Space Plasma, ISSN 1512-1127, v.19b, Tbilisi, 2016, pp. 79-89.
[45] Budagashvili T., Karchava J., Gunia G., Intskirveli L., Kuchava T., Gurgenidze M., Amiranashvili A., Chikhladze T. Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. Georgia’s Initial National Communication on Under the United Nations Framework Convection on Climate Change, Project GEO/96/G31, Tb., 1999, 137 p.
[46] Amiranashvili A., Matcharashvili T., Chelidze T. Climate change in Georgia: Statistical and nonlinear dynamics predictions. Journ. of Georgian Geophysical Soc., Iss.(A), Physics of Solid Earth, v.15A, Tb., 2011-2012, pp. 67-87.
[47] Amiranashvili A., Chikhladze V., Kartvelishvili L. Expected Change of Average Semi-Annual and Annual Values of Air Temperature and Precipitation in Tbilisi. Journ. of Georgian Geophysical Soc,, Iss. (B), Physics of Atmosphere, Ocean and Space Plasma, ISSN 1512-1127, v. 13B, Tbilisi, 2009, pp. 50 – 54.
[48] Amiranashvili A., Kartvelishvili L., Trofimenko L., Khurodze T. Statistical Structure of Mean Annual Air Temperature in Tbilisi and St.-Petersburg in 1850-2012. Proc. of Int. Conf. “Modern Problems of Geography”, Dedicated to the 80th Anniversary Since the Fondation of Vakhushti Bagrationi Institute of Geography, Collected Papers New Series, N 5(84), ISSN 2233-3347, Tbilisi, 2013, pp. 160-163.
Cover for Effect of Mean Annual Changeability of Air Temperature, Surface Ozone Concentration and Galactic Cosmic Rays Intensity on the Mortality of Tbilisi City Population
July 25, 2019